Conquistadors
01-24-2006, 06:16 PM
Illinois vs Indiana
Rankings are an approximate average of the most recent rankings posted by Wrestling Report, WIN, AWN, Intermat, and Wrestling Mall. Rankings in the range 20-30 come from Wrestling Report.
125 #3 Kyle Ott vs #1 Joe Dubuque
Before last year’s NCAA Championship match between these two, Ott had narrowly won the two previous matches between these guys. Ott is very fast and technically sound. He beats most opponents with single and double leg attacks. Dubuque countered these by using a low stance, and by using a tenacious ride. Look for Ott to figure out Dubuque’s defense and to win this rematch by DEC. ILL 3-0
133. #26 Gabe Flores vs #19 Andre Hernandez
Before the season began, Gabe was highly ranked based on his success the previous season at 125 pounds. In Gabe’s first match he beat Hernandez 3-1. Unfortunately, in his next match Gabe was injured and just returned to competition. I’m not sure if Gabe is still undersized at 133 and if he’s back in shape after his long layoff. Hernandez is having a very good redshirt freshman season. When I watched him at Midlands he looked very slick. Hernandez was injured last weekend in a match with Fleeger, so it isn’t clear if he will be back in the line-up. I’ll try to show my relative lack of bias by favoring Hernandez in this rematch. Team score 3-3
141 #26 Cassio Pero vs Nick Spatola
Cassio has gotten off to a rocky start this season with DNP showings at several tournaments. Cassio’s 3rd place finish in the Big Ten and 7th at the NCAA certainly show what he is capable of. When Cassio is on his game, he is excellent on his feet, a tenacious rider, and occasionally turns opponents. Spatola has struggled this year, mostly against weak opponents. This would be a good opportunity for Pero to try to run up points. Pero by a MAJ DEC. 7-3 Illinois
149 Troy Tirapelle vs #29 Matt Cooper
The youngest Tirapelle brother started slowly this season, but since Midlands has shown more offense and has been accumulating wins, though none of these Ws have been against top 20 competition. Troy also has older brother Adam’s knack for pinning opponents. Matt Cooper has dramatically improved this season. Cooper won the first meeting between these two at the Missouri Open, 3-1, but I think since then that Tirapelle has improved more than has Cooper. Tirapelle by DEC. 10-3 Illinois
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle vs #7 Brandon Becker
This is certainly an interesting match, given that Becker knocked Tirapelle out of last year’s NCAAs, dashing Alex’s (and his fans’) hopes of being a four-time All American. Alex had beaten Becker a couple of times earlier last season. This year Alex has had many very close matches, which perpetually leaves the door open and which has the effect of emboldening opponents. Nonetheless, Alex has only one loss: a double-overtime, 4 seconds of riding time loss to Michigan’s Luke. Becker has followed up his AA performance of last year with a strong season, though he has lost his only matches against top 10 opponents. I’ll go with Tirapelle by DEC. 13-3 Illinois
165 #9 Michael Poeta vs #19 Max Dean
Although undersized, Poeta has had a very strong season, coming close to winning at Midlands. In most matches, his speed and technical skills win out over his opponents’ size and strength. Dean had a strong Big Ten tournament last year and has followed that up with a solid season this year. Look for Poeta to win this one fairly easily by a regular DEC. 16-3 Illinois
174 #10 Don Reynolds vs Marc Bennett
Now a junior, Don seems to be both healthy and comfortable as a varsity Div I wrestler for the first time. In his match with Mark Perry at Midlands, he seemed to almost surprise himself that he was in a position to win that match as time ran down. Bennett has struggled at times this season. These two met at the Missouri Open, with Reynolds winning 9-2. There is chance of Reynolds winning by major decision, but I’ll predict a regular DEC. 19-3 Illinois
184 #3 Pete Friedl vs Justin Curran
A two-time AA, Pete is having another excellent year, with his only two losses coming to Ben Wissel. Earlier in his career, Pete racked up a lot of points. The last two seasons, however, Pete has become extremely tactical in his matches, mostly capitalizing on opponents’ efforts. Pete now rarely scores a lot of points. Curran has had a strong season, but has not yet broken into any rankings. Look for Friedl to win by a DEC. If Curran is aggressive, then look for a major decision. 22-3 Illinois
197 #10 Tyrone Byrd vs #8 Brady Richardson
Both Byrd and Richardson are looking to end their collegiate careers with a Big Ten championship and an AA performance at the NCAAs. Tyrone has shown more offense this season, which has produced more wins and more big scores. His losses have all come to top 10 opponents in close, low-scoring affairs. It seems that when he is more offensive, he wins more. Richardson had a very good year last year at 174 pounds. This year he moved up two weight classes and has done amazingly well. His only losses are to Michalak and Cerminara. Richardson beat Byrd 3-1 at the Missouri Open, and their next match also looks to be close. I would encourage Tyrone to open up his offence. This match is very important to both of these guys in terms of seeding at the Big Ten tournament. My heart is rooting for Byrd, but in order to try to be non-biased I’ll predict a win by DEC for Richardson. 22-6 Illinois
285 #22 Matt Weight vs #27 Dave Herman
Matt has moved up from 197 and has had a good year despite being smaller than most of his opponents. Herman had a superb redshirt year last year and the Hoosiers were hoping for big things. Although his season may not meet the standard of “big things,” Herman has had a good year. This match looks to be a toss up. As I mostly gave the benefit of the doubt to Illinois above, I’ll go with Herman by DEC in this one. 22-9 Illinois
Illinois is favored in five matches. The other five weights (125, 133, 149, 157, 197, and 285) could all be considered toss-ups. Thus, team scores could either be close, or Illinois could win this one going away (this is another way of saying that Indiana doesn’t match up well with Illinois). Although none of the matches are obvious bonus point matches, the Illini may score bonus points in a couple of their wins.
Rankings are an approximate average of the most recent rankings posted by Wrestling Report, WIN, AWN, Intermat, and Wrestling Mall. Rankings in the range 20-30 come from Wrestling Report.
125 #3 Kyle Ott vs #1 Joe Dubuque
Before last year’s NCAA Championship match between these two, Ott had narrowly won the two previous matches between these guys. Ott is very fast and technically sound. He beats most opponents with single and double leg attacks. Dubuque countered these by using a low stance, and by using a tenacious ride. Look for Ott to figure out Dubuque’s defense and to win this rematch by DEC. ILL 3-0
133. #26 Gabe Flores vs #19 Andre Hernandez
Before the season began, Gabe was highly ranked based on his success the previous season at 125 pounds. In Gabe’s first match he beat Hernandez 3-1. Unfortunately, in his next match Gabe was injured and just returned to competition. I’m not sure if Gabe is still undersized at 133 and if he’s back in shape after his long layoff. Hernandez is having a very good redshirt freshman season. When I watched him at Midlands he looked very slick. Hernandez was injured last weekend in a match with Fleeger, so it isn’t clear if he will be back in the line-up. I’ll try to show my relative lack of bias by favoring Hernandez in this rematch. Team score 3-3
141 #26 Cassio Pero vs Nick Spatola
Cassio has gotten off to a rocky start this season with DNP showings at several tournaments. Cassio’s 3rd place finish in the Big Ten and 7th at the NCAA certainly show what he is capable of. When Cassio is on his game, he is excellent on his feet, a tenacious rider, and occasionally turns opponents. Spatola has struggled this year, mostly against weak opponents. This would be a good opportunity for Pero to try to run up points. Pero by a MAJ DEC. 7-3 Illinois
149 Troy Tirapelle vs #29 Matt Cooper
The youngest Tirapelle brother started slowly this season, but since Midlands has shown more offense and has been accumulating wins, though none of these Ws have been against top 20 competition. Troy also has older brother Adam’s knack for pinning opponents. Matt Cooper has dramatically improved this season. Cooper won the first meeting between these two at the Missouri Open, 3-1, but I think since then that Tirapelle has improved more than has Cooper. Tirapelle by DEC. 10-3 Illinois
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle vs #7 Brandon Becker
This is certainly an interesting match, given that Becker knocked Tirapelle out of last year’s NCAAs, dashing Alex’s (and his fans’) hopes of being a four-time All American. Alex had beaten Becker a couple of times earlier last season. This year Alex has had many very close matches, which perpetually leaves the door open and which has the effect of emboldening opponents. Nonetheless, Alex has only one loss: a double-overtime, 4 seconds of riding time loss to Michigan’s Luke. Becker has followed up his AA performance of last year with a strong season, though he has lost his only matches against top 10 opponents. I’ll go with Tirapelle by DEC. 13-3 Illinois
165 #9 Michael Poeta vs #19 Max Dean
Although undersized, Poeta has had a very strong season, coming close to winning at Midlands. In most matches, his speed and technical skills win out over his opponents’ size and strength. Dean had a strong Big Ten tournament last year and has followed that up with a solid season this year. Look for Poeta to win this one fairly easily by a regular DEC. 16-3 Illinois
174 #10 Don Reynolds vs Marc Bennett
Now a junior, Don seems to be both healthy and comfortable as a varsity Div I wrestler for the first time. In his match with Mark Perry at Midlands, he seemed to almost surprise himself that he was in a position to win that match as time ran down. Bennett has struggled at times this season. These two met at the Missouri Open, with Reynolds winning 9-2. There is chance of Reynolds winning by major decision, but I’ll predict a regular DEC. 19-3 Illinois
184 #3 Pete Friedl vs Justin Curran
A two-time AA, Pete is having another excellent year, with his only two losses coming to Ben Wissel. Earlier in his career, Pete racked up a lot of points. The last two seasons, however, Pete has become extremely tactical in his matches, mostly capitalizing on opponents’ efforts. Pete now rarely scores a lot of points. Curran has had a strong season, but has not yet broken into any rankings. Look for Friedl to win by a DEC. If Curran is aggressive, then look for a major decision. 22-3 Illinois
197 #10 Tyrone Byrd vs #8 Brady Richardson
Both Byrd and Richardson are looking to end their collegiate careers with a Big Ten championship and an AA performance at the NCAAs. Tyrone has shown more offense this season, which has produced more wins and more big scores. His losses have all come to top 10 opponents in close, low-scoring affairs. It seems that when he is more offensive, he wins more. Richardson had a very good year last year at 174 pounds. This year he moved up two weight classes and has done amazingly well. His only losses are to Michalak and Cerminara. Richardson beat Byrd 3-1 at the Missouri Open, and their next match also looks to be close. I would encourage Tyrone to open up his offence. This match is very important to both of these guys in terms of seeding at the Big Ten tournament. My heart is rooting for Byrd, but in order to try to be non-biased I’ll predict a win by DEC for Richardson. 22-6 Illinois
285 #22 Matt Weight vs #27 Dave Herman
Matt has moved up from 197 and has had a good year despite being smaller than most of his opponents. Herman had a superb redshirt year last year and the Hoosiers were hoping for big things. Although his season may not meet the standard of “big things,” Herman has had a good year. This match looks to be a toss up. As I mostly gave the benefit of the doubt to Illinois above, I’ll go with Herman by DEC in this one. 22-9 Illinois
Illinois is favored in five matches. The other five weights (125, 133, 149, 157, 197, and 285) could all be considered toss-ups. Thus, team scores could either be close, or Illinois could win this one going away (this is another way of saying that Indiana doesn’t match up well with Illinois). Although none of the matches are obvious bonus point matches, the Illini may score bonus points in a couple of their wins.