Conquistadors
01-31-2006, 12:57 PM
Rankings are an approximate average of the most recent versions of the five major rankings (Wrestling Report, WIN, AWN, Intermat, and WrestlingMall). Below are my only slightly biased predictions.
125 #3 Kyle Ott (IL) vs. Michael Watts
Ott’s speed, skills, and experience should be too much for Freshman Watts. Although Kyle occasionally picks up a pin, he isn’t a big time pinner. An early dual tech fall or fall would go a long ways to bolstering Illinois’ confidence heading into the heart of the Wolverine line-up. Ott by (at least) MAJ DEC. IL-4-, MI-0
133 #23 Gabe Flores (IL) vs. #12 Mark Moos
At the beginning of the season I would have picked Flores in this one. However, Gabe has missed most of the season and is still “settling-in.” Moreover, Moos finally seems to be comfortable at 133 and has wrestled well lately. Moos by DEC. IL-4, MI-3
141 #23 Cassio Pero (IL) vs. #4 Josh Churella
This is a repeat of last year’s NCAA match for 7th place, which Pero won in overtime. At that time, Pero was wrestling phenomenally well and Churella was reported (by the Michigan folks) as not 100%. In any event, Pero began this season slowly, and even though he has shown signs of regaining last year’s form, Churella’s overall skill-level and execution should be too much for Cassio. Nonetheless, this is a match that is important to Pero in that it will indicate if he is ready to challenge for a high finish in the Big Ten and another run at AA. Churella would be disappointed in a loss, but could weather it. Churella by DEC. MI-6, IL-4
149 Troy Tirapelle (IL) vs. $7 Eric Tannenbaum
Despite a few setbacks earlier this season, Tannenbaum is still one of the top 149 pound wrestlers in the country. Troy has been wrestling well lately, but is still looking for a big-time win—this probably isn’t the match to get that big win. Again, this is important to Troy’s confidence level: can he stay reasonable close to a wrestler of Tannenbaum’s level? Tannenbaum by DEC. MI-9, IL-4
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle (IL) vs. #12 Steve Luke
Luke handed Tirapelle his only loss on the season. My on-site sources told me that Luke did nothing the entire match except block, but still had no stall calls. Luke probably won’t be able to get away with that in a Big Ten match, especially in Champaign. Since then, Luke has performed well, but has taken his lumps. Tirapelle has won all of his matches, though a fair number have been very close. Unless Tirapelle can jump out to an early lead and make Luke play catch-up, I see a relatively close match, but not as close as their first encounter. Don’t look for too much action. Tirapelle by DEC. MI-9, IL-7
165 #9 Michael Poeta (IL) vs. #1 Ryan Churella
Poeta is having an outstanding freshman campaign. He has a few losses, mostly to top-tier competition. He is a technically sound and super-fast wrestler. As he is really a 157 pound wrestler, he has to try to counter the larger size and superior strength of some opponents. Churella is one of the top wrestlers at this weight, sound in all positions, but brutal in the top position. In order to hang with Churella, Poeta will have avoid being on bottom, which means he has to not get taken down and to NOT pick down when he has choice. I will not be surprised by a Poeta victory. But to be on the safe side, I’ll go with Churella by DEC. MI-12, IL-7
174 #11 Don Reynolds (IL) vs. #11 Nick Roy [remember that rankings are an average]
Don has had a good year, despite getting pinned last weekend by Ohio State’s Maurer. From what I gather, in the first period Don had Maurer’s leg up in the air when Maurer countered, taking Don straight to his back. Don is ranked anywhere from 9th to 16th. For reasons I haven’t fully understood, Roy has had a high ranking most of this season (#6 in Intermat—do these ranking guys follow wrestling? Frishkorn is still #8 in the AWN poll). Roy has had some good wins, as well as some disappointing losses. The Michigan fans seem to think that he shows little offense. Look for Don to mix things up and score a few takedowns. Reynolds by DEC. MI-12, IL10
184 #3 Pete Friedl (IL) vs. Omar Maktabi
Pete is having a great season. However, he is sometimes overly (IMHO) tactical. Last weekend he allowed Ohio State’s Picazo to stay in the match until the final seconds. Look for Mark Johnson to light a fire under Pete and for Pete to try to run up the score on an inexperienced Maktabi. If Tyrell Todd is back in the line-up, Pete should win by regular decision. Friedl MAJ DEC Maktabi IL-14, MI-12
197 #9 Tyrone Byrd (IL) vs. #21Casey White
Tyrone is having an excellent year. Although mostly a tactical wrestler, he has shown more offense this year. I haven’t seen White wrestle (that I remember—I was at National Duals, but didn’t focus on White’s matches). Tyrone by DEC IL-17, MI-12
HWT #22 Matt Weight (IL) vs. #3 Greg Wagner
If they start at 125 pounds, then it will come down to the heavyweights (barring an upset, which of course usually happens). Wagner is having an outstanding season. I watched him at National Duals and he looked the best I’ve ever seen him (and I’ve been impressed with this two-time AA since I saw him as a freshman at Midlands). Frankly, I think he has an excellent shot at beating Mocco. Really! Matt Weight has had a solid season for Illinois. He is a small heavyweight, but is a smart wrestler who has been able to hang with much larger opponents. But he hasn’t yet wrestled someone like Wagner who is both big and an excellent wrestler. Yes, I’m “worried” about a pin, but I’m going to have to predict a mere MAJ DEC for Wagner. IL-17, MI-16
As everyone predicts, this is most likely going to be a close match. I’m sure that the coaches will emphasize bonus points. For Illinois, I’m sure that Ott and Friedl will be looking for bonus points, as will Michigan’s Wagner. In terms of upsets, I think the potential upsets are more likely to come from the Michigan side. Luke, Roy, and White could possibly win by upset. For Illinois, Flores, Pero, and Poeta have shots at upsets.
This is going to be fun!
125 #3 Kyle Ott (IL) vs. Michael Watts
Ott’s speed, skills, and experience should be too much for Freshman Watts. Although Kyle occasionally picks up a pin, he isn’t a big time pinner. An early dual tech fall or fall would go a long ways to bolstering Illinois’ confidence heading into the heart of the Wolverine line-up. Ott by (at least) MAJ DEC. IL-4-, MI-0
133 #23 Gabe Flores (IL) vs. #12 Mark Moos
At the beginning of the season I would have picked Flores in this one. However, Gabe has missed most of the season and is still “settling-in.” Moreover, Moos finally seems to be comfortable at 133 and has wrestled well lately. Moos by DEC. IL-4, MI-3
141 #23 Cassio Pero (IL) vs. #4 Josh Churella
This is a repeat of last year’s NCAA match for 7th place, which Pero won in overtime. At that time, Pero was wrestling phenomenally well and Churella was reported (by the Michigan folks) as not 100%. In any event, Pero began this season slowly, and even though he has shown signs of regaining last year’s form, Churella’s overall skill-level and execution should be too much for Cassio. Nonetheless, this is a match that is important to Pero in that it will indicate if he is ready to challenge for a high finish in the Big Ten and another run at AA. Churella would be disappointed in a loss, but could weather it. Churella by DEC. MI-6, IL-4
149 Troy Tirapelle (IL) vs. $7 Eric Tannenbaum
Despite a few setbacks earlier this season, Tannenbaum is still one of the top 149 pound wrestlers in the country. Troy has been wrestling well lately, but is still looking for a big-time win—this probably isn’t the match to get that big win. Again, this is important to Troy’s confidence level: can he stay reasonable close to a wrestler of Tannenbaum’s level? Tannenbaum by DEC. MI-9, IL-4
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle (IL) vs. #12 Steve Luke
Luke handed Tirapelle his only loss on the season. My on-site sources told me that Luke did nothing the entire match except block, but still had no stall calls. Luke probably won’t be able to get away with that in a Big Ten match, especially in Champaign. Since then, Luke has performed well, but has taken his lumps. Tirapelle has won all of his matches, though a fair number have been very close. Unless Tirapelle can jump out to an early lead and make Luke play catch-up, I see a relatively close match, but not as close as their first encounter. Don’t look for too much action. Tirapelle by DEC. MI-9, IL-7
165 #9 Michael Poeta (IL) vs. #1 Ryan Churella
Poeta is having an outstanding freshman campaign. He has a few losses, mostly to top-tier competition. He is a technically sound and super-fast wrestler. As he is really a 157 pound wrestler, he has to try to counter the larger size and superior strength of some opponents. Churella is one of the top wrestlers at this weight, sound in all positions, but brutal in the top position. In order to hang with Churella, Poeta will have avoid being on bottom, which means he has to not get taken down and to NOT pick down when he has choice. I will not be surprised by a Poeta victory. But to be on the safe side, I’ll go with Churella by DEC. MI-12, IL-7
174 #11 Don Reynolds (IL) vs. #11 Nick Roy [remember that rankings are an average]
Don has had a good year, despite getting pinned last weekend by Ohio State’s Maurer. From what I gather, in the first period Don had Maurer’s leg up in the air when Maurer countered, taking Don straight to his back. Don is ranked anywhere from 9th to 16th. For reasons I haven’t fully understood, Roy has had a high ranking most of this season (#6 in Intermat—do these ranking guys follow wrestling? Frishkorn is still #8 in the AWN poll). Roy has had some good wins, as well as some disappointing losses. The Michigan fans seem to think that he shows little offense. Look for Don to mix things up and score a few takedowns. Reynolds by DEC. MI-12, IL10
184 #3 Pete Friedl (IL) vs. Omar Maktabi
Pete is having a great season. However, he is sometimes overly (IMHO) tactical. Last weekend he allowed Ohio State’s Picazo to stay in the match until the final seconds. Look for Mark Johnson to light a fire under Pete and for Pete to try to run up the score on an inexperienced Maktabi. If Tyrell Todd is back in the line-up, Pete should win by regular decision. Friedl MAJ DEC Maktabi IL-14, MI-12
197 #9 Tyrone Byrd (IL) vs. #21Casey White
Tyrone is having an excellent year. Although mostly a tactical wrestler, he has shown more offense this year. I haven’t seen White wrestle (that I remember—I was at National Duals, but didn’t focus on White’s matches). Tyrone by DEC IL-17, MI-12
HWT #22 Matt Weight (IL) vs. #3 Greg Wagner
If they start at 125 pounds, then it will come down to the heavyweights (barring an upset, which of course usually happens). Wagner is having an outstanding season. I watched him at National Duals and he looked the best I’ve ever seen him (and I’ve been impressed with this two-time AA since I saw him as a freshman at Midlands). Frankly, I think he has an excellent shot at beating Mocco. Really! Matt Weight has had a solid season for Illinois. He is a small heavyweight, but is a smart wrestler who has been able to hang with much larger opponents. But he hasn’t yet wrestled someone like Wagner who is both big and an excellent wrestler. Yes, I’m “worried” about a pin, but I’m going to have to predict a mere MAJ DEC for Wagner. IL-17, MI-16
As everyone predicts, this is most likely going to be a close match. I’m sure that the coaches will emphasize bonus points. For Illinois, I’m sure that Ott and Friedl will be looking for bonus points, as will Michigan’s Wagner. In terms of upsets, I think the potential upsets are more likely to come from the Michigan side. Luke, Roy, and White could possibly win by upset. For Illinois, Flores, Pero, and Poeta have shots at upsets.
This is going to be fun!