Conquistadors
02-09-2006, 02:36 PM
The last time Illinois wrestled at Iowa was three years ago. In that dual the Hawkeyes demolished the Illini 40-4. Matt Lackey accounted for the only Illinois win. For current Illinois seniors it was a bad time: Kyle Ott was injured and didn’t wrestle Luke Eustice; Alex Tirapelle was upset by Joe Johnston 4-2, Pete Friedl was pinned in 1:54 by Jessman Smith; and Tyrone Byrd surrendered a large lead and was defeated by a hard-charging Ryan Fulsass 10-9. Aside from Johnston, the only current Hawkeye to compete was then-freshman Ty Eustice, who pinned Tony Pedrosa in 6:46. It gives me shivers to think about that dual, which I listened to on Hawkeye web-radio. I don’t know when Illinois last beat Iowa in Iowa.
Below are my only slightly biased predictions. Rankings are an average of the five major services.
125 #5 Kyle Ott (IL) (7-2) vs. #21 Lucas Magnani (14-12)
Kyle had a tough loss last weekend to Northwestern’s Velez. I don’t see that affecting him in the future, except perhaps in a rematch with Velez. Magnani also had a tough weekend, getting pinned twice—welcome to the Big Ten. A transfer from Brown, Magnani has gotten a chance to start this season and has turned in a solid performance for the Hawkeyes with some nice wins. Magnani will have trouble with Ott’s speed, technique, and aggressiveness. Ott by MAJ DEC. IL-4, IA-0
133 #20 Gabe Flores (IL) (6-3) vs. Daniel Dennis (18-14)
Dennis began the season very strongly and had Hawkeye fans excited. Since Midlands, however, his performance has steadily declined, and he has now lost 7 straight (all to Big Ten opponents). Flores, though a natural 125 pounder, is tenacious and skilled, and though not competitive with the top dogs at 133, is wrestling better now than is Dennis. This one could go either way, but I’ll predict Flores by DEC. IL-7, IA-0
141 #20 Cassio Pero (IL) (13-6) vs. #13 Alex Tsirtsis (16-9)
This match is essentially a toss-up. The two had a hard-fought battle last year in Champaign, with Pero winning 4-3. Tsirtsis, a blue-ribbon recruit for Iowa, was thrown to the dogs last season as a true freshman and had his ups and downs. This season he has performed better, but still not as well as Hawkeye fans would like (of course, unless a wrestler has a 100% winning record, he is a disappointment to many Hawkeye fans, who seem to have on odd sense of entitlement to winning). Pero, after a rocky start, is slowly wrestling better, though he has a long ways to go to repeat as an AA. This match is very important for both guys in terms of Big Ten seeding. Tsirtsis has some solid wins this year, Pero doesn’t, so I’ll predict Tsirtsis by DEC. IL-7, IA-3
149 #24 Troy Tirapelle (IL) (18-7) vs. #2 Ty Eustice (19-1)
Ty Eustice is one of the most solid wrestlers in the country. Tough to score on and has a knack for taking advantage of small openings. Troy T. is an exciting, no-holds-barred wrestler, who has lately been showing that he belongs in the top 20. But he needs a big win-- unfortunately, it is unlikely that Eustice will afford Troy that needed win. I’m guessing that Troy will try some things, and Eustice will take advantage of small openings to get a couple of takedowns. Then Troy will try other things. Although he could potentially catch Eustice in something big, more likely Eustice will score more points. It pains me to do so, but I’m going to predict Eustice by MAJ DEC. IL-7, IA-7
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle (IL) (24-1) vs. #7 Joe Johnston (23-8 )
Alex has won 4 of the 6 or 5 of the 7 matches that these two have had. Joe is usually the aggressor (as he is in almost all his matches). When Joe is able to finish his shots on Alex, he keeps it close or wins. Most of the time Alex is able to use his counter skills and incomparable scramble ability to come out on top. Alex is now painfully aware that Joe can beat him, and will clearly bring his A-game to this match. Also, Alex has been scoring more points lately, so this one may not be as close as everyone expects. Tirapelle by DEC. IL-10, IA-7
165 #8 Michael Poeta (IL) (19-4) vs. #19 Erik Luedke (20-10)
Luedke has had a strong season, beating middle-of-the-pack Big Ten wrestlers. As most reading this know, Mike Poeta has had a very good season even though he is undersized at 165. Luedke will probably try to slow the action and hope to exploit his size in the third period. Poeta’s speed will most likely be too much, but there is only a slight chance that Mike will be able to amass enough points for a major decision. Poeta by DEC. IL-13, IA-7
174 #13 Don Reynolds (IL) (18-5) vs. Ben Stedman
From what I gather, Mark Perry is out. According to Perry, he injured his neck during his match with Reynolds at Midlands. In that match, Perry controlled events into the third period and had a 4-0 lead when a flurry occurred, with Don getting a takedown and nearly turning Perry with turk. For much of the match, Don looked tentative. His getting close to beating Perry hopefully gave him confidence that he could compete with almost everyone at 174 (Askren and Herbert are at another level). Stedman has filled in admirably for Perry, though he has met some tough competition. One thing is for sure, as with most all Hawkeyes, he’ll battle throughout the match. Don should look to rack up points in this one, so I’m going to go with Reynolds by MAJ DEC. IL-17, IA-7
184 #5 Pete Friedl (IL) (21-3) vs. #9 Paul Bradley (13-6)
This is a rematch of the All-Star match, which Friedl won 4-3. Since then Friedl has gone 20-3 and Bradley is 13-5. Both wrestlers are tactical, so expect a relatively low scoring match. Bradley is more of a bruiser, whereas Friedl is an excellent counter wrestler. Both wrestlers have the ability to be offensive if they choose. Pete is coming off an upset loss to Northwestern’s Tamillow; Bradley has lost 3 of his last 5 matches (all to excellent wrestlers). Friedl would probably win this match two out of three times. This match could be considered roughly a toss-up, but Pete has beaten top 10 wrestlers more than has Paul. Friedl by DEC IL-20, IA-7
197 #8 Tyrone Byrd (IL) (20-4) vs. #30 Dan Erekson (16-11)
Tyrone is having an excellent season and has a legitimate claim to the top spot in the Big Ten. Last weekend he completely dominated Michigan’s White for two periods, turning White once and almost turning him two other times. Up by six points at the start of the third, Tyrone needed a takedown to win by a major (and secure a tie for Illinois). But in the third period Tyrone stopped wrestling and was satisfied with where he was at. If he wants to win the Big Ten title and finish his career as an AA (and help Illinois to their first Top Four finish at the NCAAs in a zillion years), he’s going to have to fight for entire matches. Erekson, a true freshman, was pulled out of redshirt midseason and has wrestled very well. Although he’s lost 9 of his last 13 matches, 7 of those losses have come to ranked opponents. Tyrone better not take this Hawkeye lightly. Byrd by DEC IL-23, IA-7
HWT #22 Matt Weight (IL) (15-10) vs. #15 Ryan Fuller (12-5)
Fuller has been a part time starter for the Hawkeyes the last few year. Earlier in his career he struggled, but as he’s matured his success has concomitantly improved. Since Matt Fields season was terminated by injury several weeks ago, Fuller has once again taken over as starter and has won all four of his matches, including a 7-4 victory over PSU’s ranked Edwards. Matt Weight has had a solid season, with some good wins. At Midlands, he had hit me as a smart wrestler. But in his match with Greg Wagner, Weight made a number of silly moves (as though he his opponent was his own size and skill level), which Wagner was able to capitalize on and score a fall. If Weight can win this match then he’ll be in good shape to qualify for the NCAA tournament. Fuller has had more success in the Big Ten over the last month, so I’ll go by Fuller by DEC. IL-23, IA-10
Please feel free to comment.
Below are my only slightly biased predictions. Rankings are an average of the five major services.
125 #5 Kyle Ott (IL) (7-2) vs. #21 Lucas Magnani (14-12)
Kyle had a tough loss last weekend to Northwestern’s Velez. I don’t see that affecting him in the future, except perhaps in a rematch with Velez. Magnani also had a tough weekend, getting pinned twice—welcome to the Big Ten. A transfer from Brown, Magnani has gotten a chance to start this season and has turned in a solid performance for the Hawkeyes with some nice wins. Magnani will have trouble with Ott’s speed, technique, and aggressiveness. Ott by MAJ DEC. IL-4, IA-0
133 #20 Gabe Flores (IL) (6-3) vs. Daniel Dennis (18-14)
Dennis began the season very strongly and had Hawkeye fans excited. Since Midlands, however, his performance has steadily declined, and he has now lost 7 straight (all to Big Ten opponents). Flores, though a natural 125 pounder, is tenacious and skilled, and though not competitive with the top dogs at 133, is wrestling better now than is Dennis. This one could go either way, but I’ll predict Flores by DEC. IL-7, IA-0
141 #20 Cassio Pero (IL) (13-6) vs. #13 Alex Tsirtsis (16-9)
This match is essentially a toss-up. The two had a hard-fought battle last year in Champaign, with Pero winning 4-3. Tsirtsis, a blue-ribbon recruit for Iowa, was thrown to the dogs last season as a true freshman and had his ups and downs. This season he has performed better, but still not as well as Hawkeye fans would like (of course, unless a wrestler has a 100% winning record, he is a disappointment to many Hawkeye fans, who seem to have on odd sense of entitlement to winning). Pero, after a rocky start, is slowly wrestling better, though he has a long ways to go to repeat as an AA. This match is very important for both guys in terms of Big Ten seeding. Tsirtsis has some solid wins this year, Pero doesn’t, so I’ll predict Tsirtsis by DEC. IL-7, IA-3
149 #24 Troy Tirapelle (IL) (18-7) vs. #2 Ty Eustice (19-1)
Ty Eustice is one of the most solid wrestlers in the country. Tough to score on and has a knack for taking advantage of small openings. Troy T. is an exciting, no-holds-barred wrestler, who has lately been showing that he belongs in the top 20. But he needs a big win-- unfortunately, it is unlikely that Eustice will afford Troy that needed win. I’m guessing that Troy will try some things, and Eustice will take advantage of small openings to get a couple of takedowns. Then Troy will try other things. Although he could potentially catch Eustice in something big, more likely Eustice will score more points. It pains me to do so, but I’m going to predict Eustice by MAJ DEC. IL-7, IA-7
157 #1 Alex Tirapelle (IL) (24-1) vs. #7 Joe Johnston (23-8 )
Alex has won 4 of the 6 or 5 of the 7 matches that these two have had. Joe is usually the aggressor (as he is in almost all his matches). When Joe is able to finish his shots on Alex, he keeps it close or wins. Most of the time Alex is able to use his counter skills and incomparable scramble ability to come out on top. Alex is now painfully aware that Joe can beat him, and will clearly bring his A-game to this match. Also, Alex has been scoring more points lately, so this one may not be as close as everyone expects. Tirapelle by DEC. IL-10, IA-7
165 #8 Michael Poeta (IL) (19-4) vs. #19 Erik Luedke (20-10)
Luedke has had a strong season, beating middle-of-the-pack Big Ten wrestlers. As most reading this know, Mike Poeta has had a very good season even though he is undersized at 165. Luedke will probably try to slow the action and hope to exploit his size in the third period. Poeta’s speed will most likely be too much, but there is only a slight chance that Mike will be able to amass enough points for a major decision. Poeta by DEC. IL-13, IA-7
174 #13 Don Reynolds (IL) (18-5) vs. Ben Stedman
From what I gather, Mark Perry is out. According to Perry, he injured his neck during his match with Reynolds at Midlands. In that match, Perry controlled events into the third period and had a 4-0 lead when a flurry occurred, with Don getting a takedown and nearly turning Perry with turk. For much of the match, Don looked tentative. His getting close to beating Perry hopefully gave him confidence that he could compete with almost everyone at 174 (Askren and Herbert are at another level). Stedman has filled in admirably for Perry, though he has met some tough competition. One thing is for sure, as with most all Hawkeyes, he’ll battle throughout the match. Don should look to rack up points in this one, so I’m going to go with Reynolds by MAJ DEC. IL-17, IA-7
184 #5 Pete Friedl (IL) (21-3) vs. #9 Paul Bradley (13-6)
This is a rematch of the All-Star match, which Friedl won 4-3. Since then Friedl has gone 20-3 and Bradley is 13-5. Both wrestlers are tactical, so expect a relatively low scoring match. Bradley is more of a bruiser, whereas Friedl is an excellent counter wrestler. Both wrestlers have the ability to be offensive if they choose. Pete is coming off an upset loss to Northwestern’s Tamillow; Bradley has lost 3 of his last 5 matches (all to excellent wrestlers). Friedl would probably win this match two out of three times. This match could be considered roughly a toss-up, but Pete has beaten top 10 wrestlers more than has Paul. Friedl by DEC IL-20, IA-7
197 #8 Tyrone Byrd (IL) (20-4) vs. #30 Dan Erekson (16-11)
Tyrone is having an excellent season and has a legitimate claim to the top spot in the Big Ten. Last weekend he completely dominated Michigan’s White for two periods, turning White once and almost turning him two other times. Up by six points at the start of the third, Tyrone needed a takedown to win by a major (and secure a tie for Illinois). But in the third period Tyrone stopped wrestling and was satisfied with where he was at. If he wants to win the Big Ten title and finish his career as an AA (and help Illinois to their first Top Four finish at the NCAAs in a zillion years), he’s going to have to fight for entire matches. Erekson, a true freshman, was pulled out of redshirt midseason and has wrestled very well. Although he’s lost 9 of his last 13 matches, 7 of those losses have come to ranked opponents. Tyrone better not take this Hawkeye lightly. Byrd by DEC IL-23, IA-7
HWT #22 Matt Weight (IL) (15-10) vs. #15 Ryan Fuller (12-5)
Fuller has been a part time starter for the Hawkeyes the last few year. Earlier in his career he struggled, but as he’s matured his success has concomitantly improved. Since Matt Fields season was terminated by injury several weeks ago, Fuller has once again taken over as starter and has won all four of his matches, including a 7-4 victory over PSU’s ranked Edwards. Matt Weight has had a solid season, with some good wins. At Midlands, he had hit me as a smart wrestler. But in his match with Greg Wagner, Weight made a number of silly moves (as though he his opponent was his own size and skill level), which Wagner was able to capitalize on and score a fall. If Weight can win this match then he’ll be in good shape to qualify for the NCAA tournament. Fuller has had more success in the Big Ten over the last month, so I’ll go by Fuller by DEC. IL-23, IA-10
Please feel free to comment.