Conquistadors
02-25-2006, 10:52 AM
Illinois Outlook (Feb 24, 2006)
Here is my slightly biased assessment of how the Illini wrestlers will do at Big Tens and nationals. I’m using BigEleven.net and national rankings as guides to likely seeding.
125. Kyle Ott (9-3). Despite recent losses to the #1, #3, and #8 ranked wrestlers, I expect Kyle to do well over the next three weeks. For two years in a row, he’s wrestled above his seed at the NCAAs, and if he gets a 5-8 seed, expect him to do it again. Some of his opponents have begun to figure out how to shut down Kyle’s offense, so the key to Kyle’s success is overcoming these defensive measures, as well as not getting caught underneath strong riders.
BIG TENS. Ott will probably get a #4 seed. Between Ott, Simmons, and Dubuque, one of these guys is going to have to beat two of the others. Although Simmons and Dubuque have the best chance to win the Big Tens, Kyle has wins over both these guys and could do it again. I’ll be reasonable and predict a 2nd or 3rd for Kyle. Despite losses to Velez over the last 13 months, I don’t see Velez beating Kyle again (ok, I’ll give Kyle a 55-60% chance of beating Velez in any given match).
NCAAs. Kyle will probably get a #6 seed. It will be just as challenging for him to reach the finals this year as it has been the last two years. Kyle probably has a 30-40% chance of reaching the finals and a 15-20% of winning the whole thing. In all likelihood, he’ll finish just short, with a 3rd place finish; however, there are a dozen quality guys at this weight, so a lower finish is certainly possible.
133. Gabe Flores (8-4). Unfortunately, injury kept Gabe out of many of the early season tournaments, where a wrestler can try to get accustomed to a new weight. In one sense, this is all practice for next year, when Gabe will challenge for AA at 125.
BIG TENS. #7 seed. The top five guys at 133 are probably just too strong for Gabe. He’s 1-1 with Hernandez, so a sixth place finish is possible. Most likely a 7th place finish (Hernandez has looked very good to me).
NCAAs. With a #19 ranking, Gabe will not earn a seed. Depending on draws, Gabe could win one to three matches. A Round-of-16 finish would be a good performance for him.
141. Cassio Pero (13-7). So what propelled Cassio to some big wins during the his sophomore season, third in the Big Tens, and a #7 finish at the NCAAs that seems to be lacking this year? I dunno. Pero is ranked in top 20 in only one of five polls.
BIG TENS. If Cassio gets a #6 seed, it means that he’ll be seeded behind 4 guys that he beat last year. I don’t think any of these guys will take him lightly. Cassio will have to wrestle the best he’s wrestled all year in order to finish 4th or 5th. And if he slips up, he could drop to 7th or 8th. Look for a #6 finish.
NCAAs. Obviously, no seed this year. As a returning AA, no one will take him lightly. Even if he wrestles the best he’s wrestled all year, that will only get him to the Round-of-16 (something he had trouble doing at Las Vegas and Midlands—and this tournament is a wee bit harder). I’m going to be “optimistic” and predict a round-of-16 finish.
149. Troy Tirapelle (19-9). Troy started off slow, but has wrestled well since Midlands. Unfortunately, the Big Tens has nine quality-to-elite wrestlers in this weight, so wrestling well did not earn him many wins during the Big Ten portion of the season. Also, with only eight possible slots, someone is going to be left home (sort of like a game of musical chairs).
Troy is a very exciting wrestler, but at times has allowed opponents to attack his legs too easily. Also, he has at times gotten into trouble with his aggressiveness and willingness to take chances. If he can cut down on “unforced errors,” while still capitalizing on his own aggressiveness… but that is more easily said than done.
BIG TENS. Either no seed or a #8 seed. His loss to the Iowa back-up probably cost Troy a seed. I’m going to be optimistic and predict that he’ll upset one wrestler, finish 8th, and receive a wild card.
NCAAs. Depending on the draw, Troy can hopefully win one or two matches. Given how tough it will be to qualify, getting to nationals and winning any matches would be gravy.
157. Alex Tirapelle (26-1). Alex’s history at the NCAAs shows the limitations of predictions. Alex entered the tournament as a freshman as the #9 seed, beat #1 seed Luke Becker and #4 seed Scott Owen, before losing to Ryan Bertin in the finals. As a sophomore, Tirapelle entered the tournament undefeated and the #1 seed, before loosing in the semi-finals to Jake Percival and, two matches later, to Ryan Bertin, and took 4th. As a junior, he again entered as the #1 seed, sailed through the 1st day before losing two one-point matches to Joe Johnston and Brandon Becker and not placing. Alex is currently ranked #1 in the country, having won every match this year but one.
BIG TENS. Alex will get the #1 seed. With Henning, Schlatter, Johnston, Becker, and Luke, it will be amazing for anyone to win this weight. But someone will, and I’m going to predict Alex will come out on top. And don’t forget, that the last two years that Alex beat Ryan Bertin to win the Big Tens. Worst case scenario is 3rd.
NCAAs. If he gets through the Big Ten unscathed, Alex will be the #1 seed. Alex probably has a better chance to win the tournament this year than the past two years (no Bertin, Percival, Gentry…), but little Paulson (if he’s healthy) and Matt Lebe are back, and Manotti is a very capable opponent. But again I’ll predict a victory for Alex. Worst case scenario is 3rd (hopefully).
165. Mike Poeta (22-4) has made quite a splash this season as a freshman wrestling up a weight, nearly winning at Midlands, and taking Ryan Churella into overtime. At the season-ending tournaments, he won’t have to worry about making weight several days in a row, which is an advantage. On the other hand, facing big, strong, tough competition in almost every match may start to wear on him. From what I’ve seen, the better 165-pounders attempt to use their strength to wear Mike down. In any event, the fans will get their money’s worth.
BIG TENS. Mike will get either a #2 or #3 seed at Big Tens, where he may well face the very strong and defensive-minded Matt Nagel in the semi-finals. After watching Mike on several occasions this season, I would tend to favor him in such a match. A Big Ten title isn’t completely out of the question, but given that Ryan Churella will probably be better prepared to deal with Mike this second go-round, look for Mike to take second.
NCAAs. Currently, Mike is slated for a #7 seed. A high AA is a possibility, but a mid-to-lower AA finish is more likely. A non-AA finish would be a bit of a surprise—then again, there are a lot of good wrestlers at this weight.
174. Don Reynolds (19-6) has looked much more comfortable and confident this year, after moving up from 165. He has still been somewhat inconsistent, which is reflected in the wide range of his ranking, from 7th to 15th.
BIG TENS. Don will be seeded anywhere from 5th to 7th. Aside from the dominant Jake Herbert, no one has very consistently won at this weight. Between long-term injuries to Perry and Flaherty, and many of the guys beating each other, this could be the toughest weight to predict. All the top 8 guys in this weight have had some good wins this season. With a good tournament, Don could finish 4th or 5th; with an under-average showing, a 7th or 8th is not out of the question. This weight may send a wild card.
NCAAs. Reynolds is currently on the bubble in terms of a seed (that is, his performance at Big Tens will strongly influence whether or not he gets seeded). With a bad tournament, Don could go 1-2; with a good tournament he could finish as a low AA.
184. At the outset of the year, I thought that Pete Friedl (24-3) had an excellent chance at a National Championship. I still believe that. I would give Ben Wissel a slight edge, but I think that Pete, Eric Bradley, and probably Josh Glenn are right there. And there are several other guys with a not-unreasonable chance (Kish, Backes, Mazzurco, and don't forget that Paul Bradley has wrestled his best the last two years at the national tournament). Pete has had a great career. He has changed from an exciting point-scorer as a freshman to a counter wrestler. He has this habit of winning in the last second—I hope he doesn’t miss out on an opportunity to win a National Championship because he waits too long to pull the trigger.
BIG TENS. 4th seed. Despite such a low seed, and the fact that the Big Tens is stacked at this weight, Pete as good a chance to win Big Tens again as anyone. At a #4 seed, Pete would have to beat both Eric Bradley and Ben Wissel back-to-back. I’ll be safe and predict a 2nd or 3rd place finish. (This weight may also receive a wild card.)
NCAAs. 5th seed. Look for Pete to wrestle above his seed, though a finish anywhere in the top-six in likely. I’m going to be brave (and show my bias) and predict a berth in the finals.
197 Tyrone Byrd (23-4) has wrestled the best of his career. He has scored more points (at times), gotten better at turning opponents, stayed away from the leg rides that had gotten him into trouble earlier in his career, and has been in every match. He has yet to peak at the post-season during his career, so maybe he’ll do it this year. As an interesting note, Tyrone has lost only one match (to Wynn Michalak in Midlands final) since the Las Vegas tournament on Dec 3rd. Given that winning is a habit, it seems that Tyrone has picked up a good habit.
BIG TENS. Despite a perfect 8-0 in the Big Tens, Tyrone will probably get a #2 seed. Getting to the finals will be tough. If he does, I would give him a 50-50 chance to become a Big Ten champion.
NCAAs. Tyrone is looking at approximately a #8 seed, and looking at who will be seeded above him or below him, and assuming that he beats one wrestler ranked above him and loses one match to someone ranked below him, he has a very good chance to finish as a low AA.
Hwt. Matt Weight (15-13) has done a yeoman’s job bulking up and taking on the big boys at the Div I level. He’s had some good success at times, but has had trouble in the latter part of the Big Ten season.
BIG TENS. No seed or #8 seed. Matt has a 50-50 chance of finishing 7th and qualifying or placing 8th/not placing and not qualifying.
NCAAs. Obviously no seed. If Matt qualifies for the NCAAs, he’ll be hard-pressed to win a match. If he does, the Illinois staff will really owe him a hardy thanks.
Here is my slightly biased assessment of how the Illini wrestlers will do at Big Tens and nationals. I’m using BigEleven.net and national rankings as guides to likely seeding.
125. Kyle Ott (9-3). Despite recent losses to the #1, #3, and #8 ranked wrestlers, I expect Kyle to do well over the next three weeks. For two years in a row, he’s wrestled above his seed at the NCAAs, and if he gets a 5-8 seed, expect him to do it again. Some of his opponents have begun to figure out how to shut down Kyle’s offense, so the key to Kyle’s success is overcoming these defensive measures, as well as not getting caught underneath strong riders.
BIG TENS. Ott will probably get a #4 seed. Between Ott, Simmons, and Dubuque, one of these guys is going to have to beat two of the others. Although Simmons and Dubuque have the best chance to win the Big Tens, Kyle has wins over both these guys and could do it again. I’ll be reasonable and predict a 2nd or 3rd for Kyle. Despite losses to Velez over the last 13 months, I don’t see Velez beating Kyle again (ok, I’ll give Kyle a 55-60% chance of beating Velez in any given match).
NCAAs. Kyle will probably get a #6 seed. It will be just as challenging for him to reach the finals this year as it has been the last two years. Kyle probably has a 30-40% chance of reaching the finals and a 15-20% of winning the whole thing. In all likelihood, he’ll finish just short, with a 3rd place finish; however, there are a dozen quality guys at this weight, so a lower finish is certainly possible.
133. Gabe Flores (8-4). Unfortunately, injury kept Gabe out of many of the early season tournaments, where a wrestler can try to get accustomed to a new weight. In one sense, this is all practice for next year, when Gabe will challenge for AA at 125.
BIG TENS. #7 seed. The top five guys at 133 are probably just too strong for Gabe. He’s 1-1 with Hernandez, so a sixth place finish is possible. Most likely a 7th place finish (Hernandez has looked very good to me).
NCAAs. With a #19 ranking, Gabe will not earn a seed. Depending on draws, Gabe could win one to three matches. A Round-of-16 finish would be a good performance for him.
141. Cassio Pero (13-7). So what propelled Cassio to some big wins during the his sophomore season, third in the Big Tens, and a #7 finish at the NCAAs that seems to be lacking this year? I dunno. Pero is ranked in top 20 in only one of five polls.
BIG TENS. If Cassio gets a #6 seed, it means that he’ll be seeded behind 4 guys that he beat last year. I don’t think any of these guys will take him lightly. Cassio will have to wrestle the best he’s wrestled all year in order to finish 4th or 5th. And if he slips up, he could drop to 7th or 8th. Look for a #6 finish.
NCAAs. Obviously, no seed this year. As a returning AA, no one will take him lightly. Even if he wrestles the best he’s wrestled all year, that will only get him to the Round-of-16 (something he had trouble doing at Las Vegas and Midlands—and this tournament is a wee bit harder). I’m going to be “optimistic” and predict a round-of-16 finish.
149. Troy Tirapelle (19-9). Troy started off slow, but has wrestled well since Midlands. Unfortunately, the Big Tens has nine quality-to-elite wrestlers in this weight, so wrestling well did not earn him many wins during the Big Ten portion of the season. Also, with only eight possible slots, someone is going to be left home (sort of like a game of musical chairs).
Troy is a very exciting wrestler, but at times has allowed opponents to attack his legs too easily. Also, he has at times gotten into trouble with his aggressiveness and willingness to take chances. If he can cut down on “unforced errors,” while still capitalizing on his own aggressiveness… but that is more easily said than done.
BIG TENS. Either no seed or a #8 seed. His loss to the Iowa back-up probably cost Troy a seed. I’m going to be optimistic and predict that he’ll upset one wrestler, finish 8th, and receive a wild card.
NCAAs. Depending on the draw, Troy can hopefully win one or two matches. Given how tough it will be to qualify, getting to nationals and winning any matches would be gravy.
157. Alex Tirapelle (26-1). Alex’s history at the NCAAs shows the limitations of predictions. Alex entered the tournament as a freshman as the #9 seed, beat #1 seed Luke Becker and #4 seed Scott Owen, before losing to Ryan Bertin in the finals. As a sophomore, Tirapelle entered the tournament undefeated and the #1 seed, before loosing in the semi-finals to Jake Percival and, two matches later, to Ryan Bertin, and took 4th. As a junior, he again entered as the #1 seed, sailed through the 1st day before losing two one-point matches to Joe Johnston and Brandon Becker and not placing. Alex is currently ranked #1 in the country, having won every match this year but one.
BIG TENS. Alex will get the #1 seed. With Henning, Schlatter, Johnston, Becker, and Luke, it will be amazing for anyone to win this weight. But someone will, and I’m going to predict Alex will come out on top. And don’t forget, that the last two years that Alex beat Ryan Bertin to win the Big Tens. Worst case scenario is 3rd.
NCAAs. If he gets through the Big Ten unscathed, Alex will be the #1 seed. Alex probably has a better chance to win the tournament this year than the past two years (no Bertin, Percival, Gentry…), but little Paulson (if he’s healthy) and Matt Lebe are back, and Manotti is a very capable opponent. But again I’ll predict a victory for Alex. Worst case scenario is 3rd (hopefully).
165. Mike Poeta (22-4) has made quite a splash this season as a freshman wrestling up a weight, nearly winning at Midlands, and taking Ryan Churella into overtime. At the season-ending tournaments, he won’t have to worry about making weight several days in a row, which is an advantage. On the other hand, facing big, strong, tough competition in almost every match may start to wear on him. From what I’ve seen, the better 165-pounders attempt to use their strength to wear Mike down. In any event, the fans will get their money’s worth.
BIG TENS. Mike will get either a #2 or #3 seed at Big Tens, where he may well face the very strong and defensive-minded Matt Nagel in the semi-finals. After watching Mike on several occasions this season, I would tend to favor him in such a match. A Big Ten title isn’t completely out of the question, but given that Ryan Churella will probably be better prepared to deal with Mike this second go-round, look for Mike to take second.
NCAAs. Currently, Mike is slated for a #7 seed. A high AA is a possibility, but a mid-to-lower AA finish is more likely. A non-AA finish would be a bit of a surprise—then again, there are a lot of good wrestlers at this weight.
174. Don Reynolds (19-6) has looked much more comfortable and confident this year, after moving up from 165. He has still been somewhat inconsistent, which is reflected in the wide range of his ranking, from 7th to 15th.
BIG TENS. Don will be seeded anywhere from 5th to 7th. Aside from the dominant Jake Herbert, no one has very consistently won at this weight. Between long-term injuries to Perry and Flaherty, and many of the guys beating each other, this could be the toughest weight to predict. All the top 8 guys in this weight have had some good wins this season. With a good tournament, Don could finish 4th or 5th; with an under-average showing, a 7th or 8th is not out of the question. This weight may send a wild card.
NCAAs. Reynolds is currently on the bubble in terms of a seed (that is, his performance at Big Tens will strongly influence whether or not he gets seeded). With a bad tournament, Don could go 1-2; with a good tournament he could finish as a low AA.
184. At the outset of the year, I thought that Pete Friedl (24-3) had an excellent chance at a National Championship. I still believe that. I would give Ben Wissel a slight edge, but I think that Pete, Eric Bradley, and probably Josh Glenn are right there. And there are several other guys with a not-unreasonable chance (Kish, Backes, Mazzurco, and don't forget that Paul Bradley has wrestled his best the last two years at the national tournament). Pete has had a great career. He has changed from an exciting point-scorer as a freshman to a counter wrestler. He has this habit of winning in the last second—I hope he doesn’t miss out on an opportunity to win a National Championship because he waits too long to pull the trigger.
BIG TENS. 4th seed. Despite such a low seed, and the fact that the Big Tens is stacked at this weight, Pete as good a chance to win Big Tens again as anyone. At a #4 seed, Pete would have to beat both Eric Bradley and Ben Wissel back-to-back. I’ll be safe and predict a 2nd or 3rd place finish. (This weight may also receive a wild card.)
NCAAs. 5th seed. Look for Pete to wrestle above his seed, though a finish anywhere in the top-six in likely. I’m going to be brave (and show my bias) and predict a berth in the finals.
197 Tyrone Byrd (23-4) has wrestled the best of his career. He has scored more points (at times), gotten better at turning opponents, stayed away from the leg rides that had gotten him into trouble earlier in his career, and has been in every match. He has yet to peak at the post-season during his career, so maybe he’ll do it this year. As an interesting note, Tyrone has lost only one match (to Wynn Michalak in Midlands final) since the Las Vegas tournament on Dec 3rd. Given that winning is a habit, it seems that Tyrone has picked up a good habit.
BIG TENS. Despite a perfect 8-0 in the Big Tens, Tyrone will probably get a #2 seed. Getting to the finals will be tough. If he does, I would give him a 50-50 chance to become a Big Ten champion.
NCAAs. Tyrone is looking at approximately a #8 seed, and looking at who will be seeded above him or below him, and assuming that he beats one wrestler ranked above him and loses one match to someone ranked below him, he has a very good chance to finish as a low AA.
Hwt. Matt Weight (15-13) has done a yeoman’s job bulking up and taking on the big boys at the Div I level. He’s had some good success at times, but has had trouble in the latter part of the Big Ten season.
BIG TENS. No seed or #8 seed. Matt has a 50-50 chance of finishing 7th and qualifying or placing 8th/not placing and not qualifying.
NCAAs. Obviously no seed. If Matt qualifies for the NCAAs, he’ll be hard-pressed to win a match. If he does, the Illinois staff will really owe him a hardy thanks.