Michigan St at ILL: Closer than you might think?

[Conquistadors]

Below are my only-slightly biased predictions for the Michigan State at Illinois dual. Rankings are an average of the five major services. Won-loss records are from www.bigeleven.net , but do not include last night’s (Friday’s) matches.

One might assume that Illinois should win this dual easily. But a close look—and some unimpressive recent performances by the Illini—indicate that this dual could well be very tight. And that’s not even taking into account possible upsets. It comes down to who wants to win this dual the most.

125 #5 Kyle Ott (IL) (7-2) vs. #3 Nick Simmons (24-1)

Kyle got back on track Friday night with a pin against the Iowa back-up. Simmons is having an outstanding year, with his only a loss to Hazewinkle (right now, I see a Hazewinkle-Simmons final). In their matches, Kyle tries to use his speed to hit double legs, while Simmons tries to engulf Kyle with his octopus-like arms and legs. Most of the time, Simmons manages to stop Kyle. A notable exception was during the overtime in the semi-finals of the NCAA championships last year. Kyle’s main concern is to not get caught underneath Simmons riding & turning ability. Although I’m rooting for Kyle, Nick wins this match two-thirds or three-fourths of the time. Simmons by DEC. MSU-3, IL-0

133 #20 Gabe Flores (IL) (6-3) vs. Jeff Wimberly (10-15)

Flores is at a higher level than Wimberly, who has struggled this season. Flores by MAJ. DEC. IL-4, MSU-3

141 #20 Cassio Pero (IL) (13-6) vs. #5 Andy Simmons (25-5)

Pero has come up short against some top opponents lately. At times he’s had trouble getting out from bottom and Andy Simmons is one of the best in college at riding and turning opponents. If Cassio can’t get out from bottom, this could get ugly. With that said, I’ll predict Simmons by DEC. MSU-6, IL-4

149 #24 Troy Tirapelle (IL) (18-7) vs. #11 Darren McKnight (18-10)

Troy had been wrestling well. So when it turned out that Ty Eustice wasn’t going to wrestle Friday night, it figured that Troy would get a Big Ten dual win at Carver-Hawkeye. As it turned out he lost in a somewhat lopsided manner. I didn’t see the match so I don’t know if it was a case of Troy trying things that didn’t work or Troy not being mentally not into this one. Darren McKnight has had several solid seasons for the Spartans and has commonly been ranked in the 10-15 range. Although he occasionally beats wrestlers ranked above him, he hasn’t been able to get up into that next tier (the good-chance-for-low-AA tier). McKnight is a senior, so this is his last shot. Every match is important to McKnight for seeding purposes at Big Tens. For Tirapelle, with his loss at Iowa, he has little chance for a seed. Thus, this match is more important for McKnight, who I’ll predict will win by DEC. MSU-9, IL-4

157 #1 Alex Tirapelle (IL) (24-1) vs. #29 Tony Greathouse (11-9)

Alex missed the match in Iowa, so I don’t know if he is injured and if he’ll wrestle against Michigan State. Greathouse, last year’s starter at 133, has bulked up for this year. Early on he upset Oklahoma State’s Kevin Ward, giving hope to the Spartan fans. Since then, however, he has been a .500 wrestler. If he’s healthy, Alex has a good chance to score a major decision. With the uncertainly involved in who Illinois will send out, I’ll predict a regular DEC win for Illinois. MSU-9, IL-7

165 #8 Michael Poeta (IL) (19-4) vs. Greg Goidosik (10-7)

Goidosik has struggled this season and will have trouble dealing with the fast, hard-charging Poeta. There is certainly a possibility of a fall in this match, but look for Poeta by MAJ DEC. IL-11, MSU-9

174 #13 Don Reynolds (IL) (18-5) vs. #4 RJ Boudro (23-3)

Boudro is having a banner year. Three of his four losses have been in matches with Jake Herbert (including last night). When I’ve seen Boudro wrestle, he hit me as aggressive; however, I’ve seen posted comments indicating that he is more tactical—so I’m not sure which is more accurate. Don is having a very solid season and trying to position himself for a high finish in the Big Ten and an AA at Nationals. The difference between a #3 and #4 seed is the difference between being in the top bracket with Jake Herbert (#4 seed) or opposite Herbert (#3 seed). To that end, for both Boudro and Reynolds, both are fighting for a high seed—thus this match is critical for both of these guys. I think Reynolds has a good chance to win this match, but I’ll have to go with Boudro’s record and predict a win by Boudro by DEC. MSU-12, IL-11

184 #5 Pete Friedl (IL) (21-3) vs. Joe Williams (7-9)

After a solid freshman campaign, Joe Williams hasn’t been able to get on track this season. Has he had problems with injuries? If Pete brings his offensive game, he could win by a major decision. Look for a regular DEC for Friedl. IL-14, MSU-12

197 #8 Tyrone Byrd (IL) (20-4) vs. Jeff Clemens (13-12)

Clemens has struggled, though he does have a win over Iowa’s game Erekson. With regard to Byrd, will the aggressive or tactical Tyrone show up for this match? Byrd by DEC. IL-17, MSU-12

HWT
#22 Matt Weight (IL) (15-10) vs. Max Lossen (10-10)

Matt beat Lossen 3-2 at Midlands. At midseason I would have undoubtedly predicted a win for Weight over Lossen, who has never been able to compete well with Big Ten heavyweights (not a knock—most guys can’t). However, Weight has lost three matches in a row, all in dramatic fashion, so I’m not sure how his confidence level is holding up. This is an important match for both of these guys. A win for Lossen might get a #8 seed at Big Tens, displacing Weight. I’ll give the nod to Weight by DEC, though not with a lot of confidence. IL-20, IA-12

[illinifanMHS]

id take ott. he is a machine and that double he has is just so quick. i would take troy too he has been wrestling tough his match against tannenbaum really impressed me. im selling on weight though he just doesnt do it for me at all

[Achilles]

Ok im gonna take a crack at it

125 MSU dec
133 ILL pin (prob the worst kid in the big ten IMO)
141 MSU dec
149 MSU dec
157 ILL major
165 ILL major
174 MSU dec
184 ILL dec
197 ILL dec
HWT MSU for the upset dec (MSU kid has wrestled alot of really good HWts this year i think he is alot better than his 11-11 record)

soooo that adds up to 20-15 Illinois wins

[illinifanMHS]

i got them all right except the ott match