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Old 02-10-2020
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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The Super ILLINI #11 (Purdue)



WHAT: Dual with Purdue Boilermakers
WHERE: The Friendly Confines of Historic Huff Hall
WHEN: Sunday, February 16 @ 1pm (Central)
WHY: Because Good Must Always Triumph Over Evil
TV: BTN
SWAG: Fighting Illini Fit Day at Huff Hall. Their will be a free workout class prior to the dual, and the first 150 fans will receive a free Illini blender bottle.

WHY WE HATE PURDUE: Their mascot. Duh. Through the years, there has been nothing creepier on our planet than Purdue Pete. Children have nightmares about him, and he carries around that hammer like its Mjölnir. No, buddy, that's a hammer to beat on sheet metal like an auto body repairman. Geesh. And stay out of my dreams, you thick-chinned dead-eyed monster!


THE LAST TIME OUT: The ILLINI have now won five straight duals and are 9-3 on the year, 6-2 in conference. During this past weekend, the Orange and Blue swept past Rutgers and Maryland, scoring 106 match points (and getting two pins) in the two duals compared to 46 points and zero pins for the Scarlet Knights and Terrapins. The ILLINI won 16 total matches compared to four, and one of the four was a forfeit. Additionally, ILLINOIS left the Midlands Championships with a third-place trophy. Finally, the good guys are a perfect 5-0 in historic Huff Hall.

Purdue is 11-5, 4-4 in conference. They have a remarkable 6-0 record on the road. All of their losses have come at home or in neutral venues. They beat Buffalo 32-8, Utah Valley 30-12, North Dakota State 22-12, lost to Arizona State 19-22, beat Indianapolis, Clarion, SIUE and Northern Illinois badly, finished 8th at Midlands, lost 0-41 to Iowa, beat Indiana 23-9 and Maryland 37-4. They squeaked past Rutgers 20-18, and then have lost their last three to Minnesota 12-27, Wisconsin 14-27 and Nebraska 9-31. Since the Husker loss is the most recent, we'll look at that. Notice the result at 157 pounds:

Quote:
Purdue 9, Nebraska 31

125: No. 6 Devin Schroder (PUR) def. Alex Thomsen (NEB), D 8-2
133: No. 13 Ridge Lovett (NEB) def. Travis Ford-Melton (PUR), Fall 3:57
141: Parker Filius (PUR) def. Zak Hensley (NEB), D 6-1
149: No. 14 Collin Purinton (NEB) def. No. 17 Griffin Parriott (PUR), D 13-6
157: No. 25 Peyton Robb (NEB) def. No. 6 Kendall Coleman (PUR), Injury Default 3:15
165: No. 5 Isaiah White (NEB) def. Tanner Webster (PUR), Fall 1:22
174: No. 4 Dylan Lydy (PUR) def. No. 6 Mikey Labriola (NEB), D 5-2
184: No. 11 Taylor Venz (NEB) def. Max Lyon (PUR), D 4-1
197: No. 9 Eric Schultz (NEB) def. Jared Florell (PUR), MD 15-6
285: David Jensen (NEB) def. No. 25 Thomas Penola (PUR), D 12-8
FUN FACT: Since the turn of the century, Purdue is winless against the ILLINI, going 0 for 10. The worst beatdown was 6-32. The closest they came to a win was 16-18.

THE LINEUPS: Wrestlestat.com is predicting a Boilermaker win by the score of 20-13. Did they not read the "Fun Fact" I just posted? What about the injury default at 157 that I included in the dual score just above it? Here's what we are most likely to see:

125. Justin Cardani vs. Devin Schroder. The computer program is picking the Boiler to win by a point. Right now, Schroder is where Cardani wants to be. Is he there yet? If you were to seed the Big Ten tournament this minute, the one-loss ILLINI would be seeded above the two-loss Boiler. The Purdue kid has a sweet 24-4 record against common opponents, but the ILLINOIS kid is not far behind at 17-6. Schroder likes to dive at his opponent's right ankle or shoot a single on that same leg. He also loves to tilt, and he will throw in both legs. First takedown will be key here. The Boilermaker made it to the Round of 16 last year.

133. Travis Piotrowski vs. Travis Ford-Melton. The Great Indestructible Pio keeps chugging along, and wrestlestat predicts that will continue via a 9-3 win. Pio is dangerous and could put up bonus points here. Ford-Melton (Marian Catholic) has a 13-11 record starting as a true freshman. The ILLINI is 21-2. Against common opponents, our guy is 5-1 while their guy is 3-2. Moreover, Pio has done better than Ford-Melton against every single one of those opponents.

141. Dylan Duncan vs. Parker Filius. Duncan is 8-2 against the same guys who have a 4-5 record against Filius. This is another one of those rare situations where one wrestler has done better against every single common opponent than the other guy. If Filius got a win, Duncan got a major; if Filius got a major, Duncan got a tech fall. The Boiler has a nice 16-7 record in his second year as a starter. He was 9-20 last year. This might be another match where the ILLINI can eke out a bonus point.

149. Mousa Jodeh vs. Griffin Parriott. The computer prediction machine that hates ILLINOIS has decided this is a major decision for the Boiler. Ha! We're talking Mousa Jodeh here. Parriott is a really good wrestler--he went on a winning streak of ten matches earlier this season--but he was at 157 during his first three years at Purdue, and he probably will not have the gas tank at 149 needed to get bonus here. Also, he has a 9% bonus rate, which is slightly worse than his 13% bonus rate last season. Parriott is on a four-match losing streak.

157. Eric Barone vs. Kendall Coleman or Griffin Parriott. In their dual with Nebraska, Coleman was an injury default. Status? Who knows. If he can't go, the obvious solution for PU is to wrestle Parriott here and Nate Limmex at 149. Coleman is kind of a freaky story. He was 4-4 against D1 opposition last year. Then, starting with the MSU Open (and a match with Barone that he won 13-7), the Mt. Carmel kid went on 14- or 15-match win streak. Most of it having to do with a low risk/high reward takedown that involves an arm drag and a head pull/shrug by that can score from a tie up or just jumping at the opponents arm and head. Wrestling from a knee won't stop it either.

What I would do is this: At the first sign of Coleman reaching, launch yourself at his right knee. It will be right there for the taking, as long as you get to it before he grabs your arm and head. Barone is 0-1 against Coleman, and 1-1 against Parriott.

To be continued ...
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Old 02-10-2020
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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165. Danny Braunagel vs. Tanner Webster. The Boilermaker is 3-11, and the oracle predicts a major decision for the ILLINI. In three years on the Purdue team, Webster's best win is against the #156-rated wrestler. His career mark is 20-26. I can certainly see a major in Brawlnagel's future. At least as long as whatever kept him out of the match against Maryland was something minor. If he's out of the lineup, it could mean Nick Gasbarro's first match of the year, or Johnny Mologousis gets to eat this week and wrestle up at 165, or perhaps Baan Rachal or Kenny Kerstein? The machine picks Gasbarro to beat Webster.

174. Joey "Guns" Gunther vs. Dylan Lydy. Here's your main event, folks, along with the co-main event at 125. The PU kid is having an extraordinary year. I did not see that coming. Don't get me wrong, Lydy has always been a good wrestler, and I'm for sure a Lydy's man, but he went from 29-10 last year to 27-1 this year. His first year starting for Purdue, he had a 16-19 record. Guns beat him back in 2016 by four points. He lost to the Boiler in 2018 by a point. This is the rubber match. Lydy beat David Riojas by a 4-0 count on the way to a Midlands title.

184. Zac Braunagel vs. Max Lyon. The machine calls for a two-point win for the ILLINI. Lyon is only 15-12 in his third year in the starting lineup, but he wrestles everybody (except Zahid) pretty close. He's on a four-match losing streak, losing very close matches to very good wrestlers. For example, he lost to Rutgers' Billy Janzer in sudden victory. Brawny1 beat Janzer in the first tie breaker. This will be close, but the ILLINI is favored at home. Lyon was a national qualifier last year.

197. Matt Wroblewski vs. Christian Brunner. The machine gives the Dundee-Crown product a major decision. That's what happened the last time they wrestled at the Midlands. Brunner was injured in their dual with Rutgers, so Purdue went with Jared Florell in their last dual against Nebraska. Florell is 4-4 on the year and is a backup 184-pounder. The machine has Wrobo-cop beating him. Brunner is another story, with his 22-5 record and history of making the Round of 12 at the Big Dance.

285. Luke Luffman vs. Thomas Penola. Mr. Headbutt was disqualified in his second-to-last dual against Wisconsin when he threw his pinhead at Trent Hilger's forehead. With the anything-goes attitude at Purdue, they wrestled him in their next matchup against Nebraska. Since he was wrestling at 184 last year and is now a very big guy, I would suggest that the NCAA or the conference investigate this young man's rage. Luke has the slightly better record against common opposition (4-1 versus 3-2), and a slightly better overall record (15-6 versus 18-12), so, of course, the wrestlestat machine predicts a three-point win for Mr. Road Rage.

CONCLUSION. This will be a tough dual. I have the ILLINI favored at four weights, while the Boilermakers are favored at four weights. Cardani and Luffman are the toss-up matches. Of course, the statuses of Kendall Coleman, Christian Brunner and Danny Brawlnagel will have a lot to do with the outcome. If they all go, I think we have a true 50/50 dual. If one doesn't go, that will favor the other team.



WARILLINI!!!
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Old 02-10-2020
dadudaman4 dadudaman4 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefIllini1 View Post
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165. Danny Braunagel vs. Tanner Webster. The Boilermaker is 3-11, and the oracle predicts a major decision for the ILLINI. In three years on the Purdue team, Webster's best win is against the #156-rated wrestler. His career mark is 20-26. I can certainly see a major in Brawlnagel's future. At least as long as whatever kept him out of the match against Maryland was something minor. If he's out of the lineup, it could mean Nick Gasbarro's first match of the year, or Johnny Mologousis gets to eat this week and wrestle up at 165, or perhaps Baan Rachal or Kenny Kerstein? The machine picks Gasbarro to beat Webster.

174. Joey "Guns" Gunther vs. Dylan Lydy. Here's your main event, folks, along with the co-main event at 125. The PU kid is having an extraordinary year. I did not see that coming. Don't get me wrong, Lydy has always been a good wrestler, and I'm for sure a Lydy's man, but he went from 29-10 last year to 27-1 this year. His first year starting for Purdue, he had a 16-19 record. Guns beat him back in 2016 by four points. He lost to the Boiler in 2018 by a point. This is the rubber match. Lydy beat David Riojas by a 4-0 count on the way to a Midlands title.

184. Zac Braunagel vs. Max Lyon. The machine calls for a two-point win for the ILLINI. Lyon is only 15-12 in his third year in the starting lineup, but he wrestles everybody (except Zahid) pretty close. He's on a four-match losing streak, losing very close matches to very good wrestlers. For example, he lost to Rutgers' Billy Janzer in sudden victory. Brawny1 beat Janzer in the first tie breaker. This will be close, but the ILLINI is favored at home. Lyon was a national qualifier last year.

197. Matt Wroblewski vs. Christian Brunner. The machine gives the Dundee-Crown product a major decision. That's what happened the last time they wrestled at the Midlands. Brunner was injured in their dual with Rutgers, so Purdue went with Jared Florell in their last dual against Nebraska. Florell is 4-4 on the year and is a backup 184-pounder. The machine has Wrobo-cop beating him. Brunner is another story, with his 22-5 record and history of making the Round of 12 at the Big Dance.

285. Luke Luffman vs. Thomas Penola. Mr. Headbutt was disqualified in his second-to-last dual against Wisconsin when he threw his pinhead at Trent Hilger's forehead. With the anything-goes attitude at Purdue, they wrestled him in their next matchup against Nebraska. Since he was wrestling at 184 last year and is now a very big guy, I would suggest that the NCAA or the conference investigate this young man's rage. Luke has the slightly better record against common opposition (4-1 versus 3-2), and a slightly better overall record (15-6 versus 18-12), so, of course, the wrestlestat machine predicts a three-point win for Mr. Road Rage.

CONCLUSION. This will be a tough dual. I have the ILLINI favored at four weights, while the Boilermakers are favored at four weights. Cardani and Luffman are the toss-up matches. Of course, the statuses of Kendall Coleman, Christian Brunner and Danny Brawlnagel will have a lot to do with the outcome. If they all go, I think we have a true 50/50 dual. If one doesn't go, that will favor the other team.



WARILLINI!!!
Agree with you, Chief. This one looks like a real nail biter until the end. I give the Boilers an edge at 125, 149, 157, 174 and 197. An upset here or there, or bonus points, may decide this thing. I'm going with the Illini by a point.
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Old 02-10-2020
Crystal Clearly Crystal Clearly is offline
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PURDUE (The chicken people?)

Assuming they start at 125

125 - L dec PU 3-0 - home toss-up - JC wrestles tough at home, but comes up short
- hopefully I'm wrong and Cardani can pick up a HUGE home win - if he can, UI wins the dual - NO PRESSURE
133 - W major UI 4-3 - TP comes up big with a much needed bonus point
141 - W dec (major?) UI 7-3 - could this become a momentum/home major off of 133?
149 - L dec UI 7-6 - doesn't matter if it's Parriott or Limmex, still just a decision loss (hopefully)
157 - L* dec PU 9-7 - *Assuming Coleman - if Parriott goes, W - dec *UI 10-6
165 - W major (or tech/fall?) UI 11-9 - Bonus, bonus points would be HUGE !!! *UI 14-6
174 - L dec PU 12-11 - toss-up - Guns keeps it close at home, but falls short *UI 14-9
184 - W dec UI 14-12 - ZB too much at home *UI 17-9
197 - L dec PU 15-14 - the home mat keeps this from being a devastating major loss *UI 17-12
285 - W dec UI 17-15 - toss-up home win - Luff has improved greatly throughout the season
- if it comes down to this being the last match this may be a good one to be at.... *UI 20-12 (PU 18-14)

Illinois needs to pray for a start at 157 to keep Coleman out.

The biggest factor in this dual is whether Kendall Coleman is able to go, and if so, what condition he is in.
- (6 UI wins vs. 5 wins each)
The other (obvious) factor is bonus points.
- the Illini HAVE to get them at every opportunity AND keep Purdue from getting them to have any chance at winning this dual against a very much improved (and improving) Boilermaker team.

The dual being at home could be the deciding factor, with the crowd and the teams momentum lately.

Bottom line, the Illini have their work cut out for them. (I know, THAT was a stretch....)

(team score if Purdue wins the toss-ups)
* team score with Coleman out and Parriott @ 157
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Old 02-10-2020
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PapaBearSLIM PapaBearSLIM is offline
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Those with NCAA tournament aspirations rarely bump

I would be surprised if Parriot bumps even if Coleman is a no go.

Parriot is still angling for qualifying and seeding. A match at any weight other than 149 doesn't help him (RPI /Win %).

Also as noted he is on a 4 match losing streak. The confidence match is at 149, not 157 (especially having to weigh in close to or at 149).
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Old 02-10-2020
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Blonjuan44 Blonjuan44 is offline
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How many wrestlers at Purdue are from Illinois? I would say Purdue and Iowa are about the most UofIish kind of schools. I would say Iowa & Indiana is in the top 8 schools at most IL high schools of where kids are going to college, although Purdue gets the smartest of those 3 out of state schools. Purdue is a great deal if you live in Indiana and get in - its like 8K or something for Tuition, worth getting a 3K Gary house and claiming residency perhaps. Heck the congressman claim their yachts in the cheapest state regularly.
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Old 02-11-2020
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crystal Clearly View Post
PURDUE (The chicken people?)

Assuming they start at 125

125 - L dec PU 3-0 - home toss-up - JC wrestles tough at home, but comes up short
- hopefully I'm wrong and Cardani can pick up a HUGE home win - if he can, UI wins the dual - NO PRESSURE
133 - W major UI 4-3 - TP comes up big with a much needed bonus point
141 - W dec (major?) UI 7-3 - could this become a momentum/home major off of 133?
149 - L dec UI 7-6 - doesn't matter if it's Parriott or Limmex, still just a decision loss (hopefully)
157 - L* dec PU 9-7 - *Assuming Coleman - if Parriott goes, W - dec *UI 10-6
165 - W major (or tech/fall?) UI 11-9 - Bonus, bonus points would be HUGE !!! *UI 14-6
174 - L dec PU 12-11 - toss-up - Guns keeps it close at home, but falls short *UI 14-9
184 - W dec UI 14-12 - ZB too much at home *UI 17-9
197 - L dec PU 15-14 - the home mat keeps this from being a devastating major loss *UI 17-12
285 - W dec UI 17-15 - toss-up home win - Luff has improved greatly throughout the season
- if it comes down to this being the last match this may be a good one to be at.... *UI 20-12 (PU 18-14)

Illinois needs to pray for a start at 157 to keep Coleman out.

The biggest factor in this dual is whether Kendall Coleman is able to go, and if so, what condition he is in.
- (6 UI wins vs. 5 wins each)
The other (obvious) factor is bonus points.
- the Illini HAVE to get them at every opportunity AND keep Purdue from getting them to have any chance at winning this dual against a very much improved (and improving) Boilermaker team.

The dual being at home could be the deciding factor, with the crowd and the teams momentum lately.

Bottom line, the Illini have their work cut out for them. (I know, THAT was a stretch....)

(team score if Purdue wins the toss-ups)
* team score with Coleman out and Parriott @ 157
Can't fault any of this. In looking at some recent video of both Schroder and Ford-Melton, I'd think that Schroder isn't cutting too awful much. But, Travis Ford-Melton is pretty tall and broad for that weight. It might be an advantage to start at 125. Of the four guys at 125 and 133 on the two teams, I would guess that he's cutting the most.

As for 125, in the video I saw of the Purdue kid, his takedowns were stopped with an ankle grab and scramble. If you tried a chest lock defense, he was gonna get his two. Whoever is able to finish cleanly with the first takedown has a huge advantage. Cardani is going to get after it. Never see any fear from him. Really excited about this one, as it will be a great test of where the local hero is right now.

By the way, the WIN rankings, I suspect, are published each week solely to piss me off. Case in point: They have Indiana's Liam Cronin ranked #20. They do not rank Cardani in the Top Twenty. Cronin's record is 12-11; Cardani's at 14-6. Cardani has beaten Cronin three times this year, 6-2, 6-4 and 9-5. I think we need to file a Class Action against WIN Magazine.

The announcers during the Rutgers match seemed to suggest that the ILLINI had the dual wrapped up, so that was the reason Danny Brawlnagel didn't wrestle the last match. I didn't see a limp from him. Hopefully, it was just a well-deserved rest.

As for Coleman and Brunner, there were some real problems. For Coleman, it was bad enough to stop a match that Purdue really needed to win against Nebraska. For Brunner, whatever it is was was bad enough to keep him out of the Nebraska dual. In any event, they probably missed some conditioning days.

Thanks for "the spread." I do think it is helpful.

WARILLINI!!!
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Old 02-11-2020
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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Originally Posted by PapaBearSLIM View Post
I would be surprised if Parriot bumps even if Coleman is a no go.

Parriot is still angling for qualifying and seeding. A match at any weight other than 149 doesn't help him (RPI /Win %).

Also as noted he is on a 4 match losing streak. The confidence match is at 149, not 157 (especially having to weigh in close to or at 149).
If Coleman can't go, I expect the PU coach to bump up Parriott. Here's why, Slim: If the PU coach cared about his kids and not his dual record, he woulda kept Penola out of the Nebraska dual. He did not. Now, I'm not one of those Name-Your-Boy-Sue-type authoritarians, but you gotta set some boundaries. So, I believe that the Purdue coach will think, "What gives me the best chance to win," and not "What's in the best interest of my wrestler."

Second, Parriott wrestled 157 for the past three years. He's cutting a ton of weight. It gives him a break from that. He can't spend too much time in the Pizza Hut buffet, but he also doesn't have to live on water and sprouts for a week.

Third, Limmex is way undersized for 157. He was at 141 last year. We shall see! Good luck to ODU except when they wrestle the ILLINI! I like their Assistant Head Coach.

GO ILLINI!!!
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Old 02-11-2020
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Blonjuan44 View Post
How many wrestlers at Purdue are from Illinois? I would say Purdue and Iowa are about the most UofIish kind of schools. I would say Iowa & Indiana is in the top 8 schools at most IL high schools of where kids are going to college, although Purdue gets the smartest of those 3 out of state schools. Purdue is a great deal if you live in Indiana and get in - its like 8K or something for Tuition, worth getting a 3K Gary house and claiming residency perhaps. Heck the congressman claim their yachts in the cheapest state regularly.
They start three ILLINOIS kids. I saw their roster, but can't remember if there are any others.

Of course, kids should stay in state where possible, but if I had to go somewhere, it would probably be Wisconsin. When I wrestled in college, we had a meet in Wisconsin one year, and I stayed with some friends afterwards. We met up with some of their friends in a dorm room.

When I walked in, I asked, "Is that what I think it is?" Before they could answer, I started running down the hallway barging into other rooms, and, sweet Lord, they all had refrigerators with the bottom-front drilled out so the beer tap could stick out.

Of course, the girls were awful ugly, but that, I guess, is remedied somewhat by the beer taps.

WARILLINI!!!
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Old 02-11-2020
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PapaBearSLIM PapaBearSLIM is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefIllini1 View Post
If Coleman can't go, I expect the PU coach to bump up Parriott. Here's why, Slim: If the PU coach cared about his kids and not his dual record, he woulda kept Penola out of the Nebraska dual. He did not. Now, I'm not one of those Name-Your-Boy-Sue-type authoritarians, but you gotta set some boundaries. So, I believe that the Purdue coach will think, "What gives me the best chance to win," and not "What's in the best interest of my wrestler."

Second, Parriott wrestled 157 for the past three years. He's cutting a ton of weight. It gives him a break from that. He can't spend too much time in the Pizza Hut buffet, but he also doesn't have to live on water and sprouts for a week.

Third, Limmex is way undersized for 157. He was at 141 last year. We shall see! Good luck to ODU except when they wrestle the ILLINI! I like their Assistant Head Coach.

GO ILLINI!!!
The season is winding down and there are weight decent restrictions that would make Parriot have to weigh in at or near 149 for this dual if he wants to wrestle 149 for future competitions. So not only is there no weight cut break he would also be giving up signifigant weight to a good opponent. So even if the Purdue staff cares more about the win, there is
a better chance Purdue loses both 149/157 or breaks even than winning both.

Bumping up is no small task at that level and is why you don't see it often even with the amount of injuries and forfeits we've seen over the years. If a wrestler bumps it's likely a backup who is just happy to be in the lineup.
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