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  #31  
Old 1 Week Ago
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PapaBearSLIM PapaBearSLIM is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefIllini1 View Post
Current rankings. Marsteller will win more than he loses against everybody below him in those rankings. White still has something to prove. Check out the Notre Dame schedule from last year. He won way too many regular decisions. You put Chandler Rogers or Chad Walsh or a full-feed Jordan Kutler or a previous Division One AA like David McFadden in his shoes, and they bonus just about every one of those guys.

We'll see, Slim!
I think White should be ranked outside of the top 10 preseason based on his lack of quality D1 wins. I think he will be ranked top 10 in January and end up on the podium in March.

I don't think Marstellar should be ranked quite so high right now because the guys you have below him have had better results so far. Like White I think he will prove to be worthy of a top 10 ranking by midseason and find his way to the podium at NCAAs.

As far as eye test of ability I put Martinez/Massa/Joseph in 1st tier, White/Marstellar in the 2nd tier, Walsh/Valencia/Kutler/Mcfadden/Rogers are the 3rd tier and Steiert heads the pack of the other guys. By March I think the 2nd tier guys may push into title contention while the 3rd tier and other guys may interchange without ever breaking into that 2nd tier.
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  #32  
Old 1 Week Ago
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PapaBearSLIM View Post
I think White should be ranked outside of the top 10 preseason based on his lack of quality D1 wins. I think he will be ranked top 10 in January and end up on the podium in March.

I don't think Marstellar should be ranked quite so high right now because the guys you have below him have had better results so far. Like White I think he will prove to be worthy of a top 10 ranking by midseason and find his way to the podium at NCAAs.

As far as eye test of ability I put Martinez/Massa/Joseph in 1st tier, White/Marstellar in the 2nd tier, Walsh/Valencia/Kutler/Mcfadden/Rogers are the 3rd tier and Steiert heads the pack of the other guys. By March I think the 2nd tier guys may push into title contention while the 3rd tier and other guys may interchange without ever breaking into that 2nd tier.


You make a good point about Marsteller's lack of results. He botched everything at Oklahoma State, and he does have three losses to IMAR. Like you, I rely on a number of factors, including the eye test.

In his freestyle matches, Marsteller showed well when it comes to the eye test: strength, generally good position, aggressiveness and offense. His gas tank is the real unknown. Can he keep his weight under control?

That is Valencia's concern as well. Plus, he sometimes gives up. That's why I think he moves to 174.

Can White get off bottom against these guys? Why did he not score more against his Division II opponents?

Heck, one of my factors I considered is that Chandler Rogers will hit his ceiling at the NCAA Tournament as soon as he runs into a positionally strong and patient wrestler who listens to his coaches.

McFadden missed a year because of injury, but he AAed easily the year before that, and Kutler, I believe, would've had a big tournament at 157 last season if not for weight problems. He won't have those issues this year.

Walsh is a senior with what seems like a limitless bag of tricks. He can be beaten by the same wrestler as Rogers, though, so his ceiling is high, but there's an obvious ceiling. White needs to avoid guys like Rogers and Walsh (or get experience against them in the regular season).

I did take into account that Isaiah will have some great training partners, but I don't know what Green or Burroughs can teach him about bottom technique. They will be able to teach him some beautiful offense.

If you can't tell, I'm totally psyched for the season!

GO ILLINI!!!
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  #33  
Old 1 Week Ago
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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THE ILLINI VS. NORTHWESTERN


.
Now that the first order of business is out of the way, we can move on to some serious analysis.

.

.

I was wrong. We weren't quite ready to get serious yet. Let's try this again. But screw all the jokes, put our gameface on and get serious. Here goes:

.

THE ILLINI VS. NORTHWESTERN



.

Okay, now it's time to get serious about getting serious. Take three!

THE ILLINI VS. NORTHWESTERN

The match is at Huff Hall. Last year, the ILLINI won 28-15 at Welsh-Ryan, and it was that close because of some really odd things. Northwestern scored almost all of their points on two third-period falls. One of them was a last-second defensive fall with the ILLINI wrestler having the lead at the time.

So, the Wildcats managed to get lucky and make it respectable. Kinda.

Starting at 125, Travis Piotrowski was the one to give up the defensive fall to Anthony Rubinetti while Travis was leading. The fall was called with about four seconds left in the match. Pio was trying to turn the Wildcat! I love his aggressiveness. The likely starter for NU this year is Sebastian Rivera. Travis lost to him last year by a score of 3-1. Not too worried about this because Pio has shown the ability to beat some pretty good wrestlers the second time through, including Conor Youtsey, Ben Thornton and Rutgers' Brandon Paetzell. Flo has Rivera and Piotrowski ranked 4th and 5th in the Big Ten respectively, so it is pretty much a toss up.

Plus, it doesn't matter who Rivera is dating, Travis Piotrowski has the hotter girlfriend.

At 133, it will likely be Dylan Duncan for the ILLINI versus Jason Isparides. Duncan is ranked 8th in conference; Isparides is down at 11th. Wrestlestat has the two ranked 29th and 72nd respectively. Going back to the dual last year, Zane Richards beat Isparides 16-6. Earlier in the year, Zane hammered him by Tech Fall. This should be a comfortable win for Duncan.

At 141, Flo has Dylan Thurston in the ILLINI lineup. Thurston won a match in the U23 tournament the other day, but I thought Michael Carr was more likely to win the spot. Alec McKenna is penciled into this spot for the Mildcats. He squeaked out a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Mousa Joudeh. If the ILLINI suit up the 2x PA state champ, the ILLINI win. If not, the ILLINI probably win at home.

With Ervin out of the lineup because of injuries, 149 goes full-time to Eric Barone. Flo has Barone ranked 8th in the Big Ten, Ryan Deakin is ranked 6th. This should be a barnburner. Barone will have an opportunity to get some easy wins this year under his belt before the conference season begins.

Beginning at 157, we see the ILLINI pull away. Kyle Langenderfer is ranked an unsympathetic 9th by Flo in conference, while Eric Yang is down at 14th. Wrestlestat has Langenderfer underrated at #39 and Yang at #171. This will be a pin or tech.

Look for at least another major decision at 165, as IMAR gets revenge on Johnny Sebastian. Not because Sebastian beat him, but because Sebastian played some dirty pool in their last match, which was a 24-13 win by IMAR in the Conference Tournament. According to Wrestlestat, IMAR is 12-0 against common opponents. Sebastian is 3-7.

The bonus point beat downs don't stop yet. For 174, Flo has the Xman, Xavier Montalvo ranked 6th in the B1G; whereas Cody Braxton is 14th. Wrestlestat predicts a tech fall. Braxton wrestled Zac Brunson three times last year, and the longest match lasted 157 seconds. It takes longer to microwave a burrito!

At 184, Emery Parker is ranked over Mitch Sliga by Flo and wrestlestat and every other ranking service. He also beat him at last year's dual 5-3. Wrestlestat has them as the 8th and 31st-ranked wrestlers respectively, and predicts a major decision, but we'll just say a win for the ILLINI here.

Again at 197, we have an ILLINI wrestler ranked higher than his Wildcat counterpart. Andre Lee is projected to be #13 in conference; Regis Durbin #14. Wrestlestat prognosticates and pontificates a pretty comfortable win for Lee at 9-5. That's probably because they have Lee rated #64 and Durbin at #174. (By the way, this was one of those matches that the ILLINI was winning in--Lee versus graduated senior Berkowitz--until a third-period fall).


At Heavyweight, Flo has Jennings ranked slightly higher than Brooks Black, but on wrestlestat, it is Black who has a huge edge. Most importanly, Brooks is 3-0 versus Jennings. Black winning by Fall, by a 5-0 score and then a 4-2 score.

This could get scary bad for Northwestern.
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  #34  
Old 1 Week Ago
Red Turban Red Turban is offline
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Please tell me that's just fun. No way you can consider that analysis.

It was cute, but way off base. At least 3 guys mentioned wont even be in the NU lineup unless somebody is injured. Our 165 gets beat, but it's not Johnny Sebastian.

Barone is a good wrestler who could have gone with Deakin early last year, but not now.

This one could turn scary bad for us, but I doubt it does. A healthy Cats lineup wrestling well could pull out a win.

Being at Huff is a huge advantage for the Illini. This one seems like it will come down to which team wrestles well on the day.

Btw, expect the Captain @Johnnywrestling to come out on fire this year. Last year was his first time on the mat after being out injured 2 years in a row.
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  #35  
Old 1 Week Ago
ChiefIllini1 ChiefIllini1 is offline
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Originally Posted by Red Turban View Post
Please tell me that's just fun. No way you can consider that analysis.

It was cute, but way off base. At least 3 guys mentioned wont even be in the NU lineup unless somebody is injured. Our 165 gets beat, but it's not Johnny Sebastian.

Barone is a good wrestler who could have gone with Deakin early last year, but not now.

This one could turn scary bad for us, but I doubt it does. A healthy Cats lineup wrestling well could pull out a win.

Being at Huff is a huge advantage for the Illini. This one seems like it will come down to which team wrestles well on the day.

Btw, expect the Captain @Johnnywrestling to come out on fire this year. Last year was his first time on the mat after being out injured 2 years in a row.
As much bad luck as the Wildcats have had over the past couple of years, they still have a pretty nice team, Red Turban. They match up poorly against the ILLINI. I think Sebastian is a great wrestler, and he would win in a dual against about every team in the country next year except for maybe a dozen. He shouldn'ta oughta pissed of IMAR though.

(I don't know that IMAR is pissed. Just a guess. Probably water under the bridge by now.).

If Sebastian moves up or down in weight, then IMAR gets a pin instead of a major. Can Sebastian make up those 2 points at the other weight?

Conan Jennings is in a similar boat. He's favored in a dual against every team in the country except maybe eight. And against Brooks Black, who has his number.

Rivera and Piotrowski, on paper, look very even, except that Pio lost the head-to-head last year in a close one. Will Huff Hall make the difference? What about Pio's ability to zero in on wrestlers who beat him before? Rivera gets favored for now.

Deakin and Barone look to be a similar matchup. Deakin, I will grant you, is favored on paper, but It should be close. The ILLINI are right there in matches were NU is favored, but the Orange and Blue look to roll up some bonus.

It will be interesting to see. Glad you have a sense of humor. All in fun! Your football coach has actually done a great job and almost certainly doesn't prance around calling himself "Sir Admiral Whiskers." That would be an unbelievable coincidence if true.

GO ILLINI!!!
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